Almost 2 years ago, I wrote a blog titled 特斯拉启示录. Since then, Tesla’s stock price has been up 8 times to 1070USD/share today. Now I want to explain why I am still happy holding the stock in 2022 and beyond, and why Tesla is going to be a 10 Trillion dollar company.
Even though the Fed chair Powell has announced the plan to increase the interest rate in 2022, I still firmly believe nobody wants to stop the money printing.
Money printing is extremely friendly to the rich and the poor. Rich people get 0 interest loans, poor people get helicopter money. Middle-class people might be the only group that worries about inflation. However, I believe inflation is good, wealth will transfer very fast from the stupid to the smart, Middle class people should take more risks and support innovations.
So good companies will get more valuable, including Tesla. IMO Young people are smarter, they will abandon dead concrete, aka. houses, or dead rocks, aka. gold, they will focus on things that create real value for the world. BTW, I don’t think the current company/stock form is the best way for people to own the thing, DAO/coins might be the way to go in the future, but this is another topic.
Like PC 40 years ago, and smartphones 10 years ago, cars will be the next platform that a whole generation of talents give their passion for.
Many years after Marc Andreessen said software is eating the world, no software guy touched the cake of the automobile industry. Because you need to super-rich to build a car company. But Tesla has done that now. Lots of people believe software could make the production of cars a ton more efficient, now I believe the momentum will continue. Use bit to shape atoms, something big since Henry Ford will happen to the manufacture of not only cars but also all the things.
Cars are not just cars, it is the only product that people will spend a lot of money on. Building a software-driven new manufacturing system takes a ton of money, so if the change will happen, this can only happen to car making first. But once the concept is proven by cars, we won’t stop here.
I think that FSD still is far away. L4 is still waiting for an AI algorithm breakthrough. But there is a lot that can be done at L2 or L3. So the software side will be exciting. Besides, The charging network and whole ecosystem have already a strong network effect. So I have no worry about Tesla’s moat.
My guess is that Tesla will be as consequential as standard Oil once was. Because the company’s culture matches our time.
In my heart, Elon is one of the two kings of geeks, the other being Linus Torvalds, At the time being, the mainstream still doesn’t understand us. We are the hackers who built GNU/Linux, the Web, Wikipedia, Google, and Bitcoin. The world doesn’t understand how we work as a community, hence underestimating us.
Yes, Tesla is a new cult, while Linux is an earlier one, Linus did not have money, but Elon does. So a lot more can be done. Tesla is a culture, we don’t have to limit ourselves to cars, we can build anything, Tesla Bot included. My strong feeling is that, at this point in history, any dollar that is not used for developing robots is not properly allocated. You don’t build things, you build the robots that build the things for you. Elon Musk understands this more than anyone on this planet, that’s why he considers Gigafactories are the product, not the cars because they are the machines that build machines.
Certainly, I might be wrong on the market price. But I still all-in Tesla in 2022, since I have not found any other company that is more efficient on changing the world, not Google, not Amazon, let alone Tencent and Alibaba, quite frankly, there are not even close, that’s why I will still call myself successful even Tesla stock won’t gain in the new year. OK, that’s all for this crazy prediction, happy 2022!
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