评估公司价值的心法。学习，就是不但建立自己认知世界的模型的过程。每一个模型都需要不断试错和迭代，但是不符合我投资模型的企业，我是不会投的。
投资策略
- My slogan: Make Great Things Happen
- I don’t invest in established bussiness, only startups
- of course, there are startups inside a established bussiness, like Tencent.
- I don’t invest small startups, only invest biggest startups
- I only invest big trends, global concensus (say, AI/automation/cleanEnergy, EV, bitLeadAtom,solar power, factoryAsProduct, MachineBuildMachine, automated-e-commerce…), paradigm changes, not small imporvements(say Clubhouse).
- I may consider becoming an LP in a top tier VC firm as a indirect way to support new ideas.
- I don’t have direct connection with those founders, so I can not do research
- I invest in only high-risk stocks, I do my research to have the risk in control
- look for exponential growth
- If you invest in a innovative tech company, that’s a natural attribute
- the nature of investment: carry risk for wealth creators
- in one senetence: carry risks for other people
- know the mission and deeply believe in it
- For example, I don’t really want to invest in Meituan or Tencent now, because I don’t really know why they need my money. Of course, Meituan is still doing great things, but I don’t see they need my money to do it. So I belive I prefer some company that is doing sth really difficult, and my money and support does help them to achieve that specific mission. Yes, I don’t invest in companies, I invest in missions.
- everything should be in a balance in long term
- investors should be awarded because they also make real contribution to society
- Tesla is creating wealth, so people work for tesla should be rewarded, that is but obvious. But problem is Tesla is carrying too much burden, hard work is one part of the burden, the other part is the finicial risks due to their speed of innovation. As a investor, I hold stocks long term, that means I carry my share of finicial risk for Tesla. So I should be rewarded, when things are done successfully.
- everything is buy nature very simple, Elon Musk offer hard work, investors offer money, together we make exciting things happen, and get the world changed.
- Now I don’t feel comfortable holding Meituan and Tencent Stock, why? I don’t see them use my money on exciting things. At least, it’s not so clear. Don’t get me wrong, they are doing marvelous things, but I don’t see them in need of my money, seems that they have more than money, that’s why they spend my money on the companies I don’t like, say NIO or Liauto. I perfer things clear and exciting, not indirect and vague things. Another example, I love Bilibili, and it’s also a startup, a beautiful dream not come true yet. So I will support her. But I don’t see how my money can help her, they are not in need of money, they need great content contributors. On the other hand, Tesla needs to push solarRoof, build charging network, every dollar will be used in solid contribution to human progress.
- if you focus on making money, you won’t make money
- Many people make investment decision by analysising if a company will grow well or not. For example, they will see, tencent will support Bilibili, so Bilibili will grow well. That’s why they invest. Seems logical, but to me that’s just ridiculous. If you invest like that, even you are long term, you are not a investor, but a gambler. You always try to avoid risks, you don’t know how your every dollar will help Bilili to grow faster. You just want to get on the train, and follow big brothers, shame on you.
- investing is NOT risky
- you try so hard in a job, but you can be fired anytime, isn’t that risky?
- 投资是艺术，不是技术
- 这是沈南鹏的观点，他说尤其早期投资更是这样
- 投资靠的是想象力
- 不一定非要定投 DollarCostAvaraging
- 看好一个股票，不管它现在价格高低，直接全仓买入就好了
- 巴菲特说的有道理：如果你不打算一辈子持有一个股票，最好就不要买。
- 控制风险，靠的是多给自己留点现金。
- Don’t Time The Market
- 巴菲特说：你靠看头条是发不了财的。
- 的确，如果开市钱有利空，等到开市的一瞬间，价格就已经跌下去了，你再跑已经晚了
- 已经发生的事件已经 priced-in ，没有发生的事件，预测相当于猜硬币
- 所以所有的对定投的优化都是愚蠢的
- 只投第一
- ”软件吃世界“是我的唯一投资主线
- 代码是自电力以来，人类最大的产业奇迹。也是生产力发展的，唯一动力，嗯，是唯一。
- 我的很多其他投资决策思路都是从这一点。例如”只投第一，不投第二“，”网络效应为王“，都是在”软件吃世界“的大背景下才成立的。信息时代，这个词不是嘴上说说，时代的底色是信息的光速流动，所有的对产业规律的判断都要因此而变。
- 比特带原子时代，原子的流动规律会更类似于比特。互联网是比特之网，制造业的终极目标是要建立”原子之网“，用网络化，把原子的移动成本，和移动精确度提到最高水平。
- 凡是不是“软件”为王的企业，一律不投。小牛电动，昨天买了一些，今天晚上抛了。蔚来有太多优点，但是李斌毕竟是文科生，没有代码化的思维，所以我也不会投。每一个原子，都应该有一个比特灵魂，指引自己要走向哪里。美团，特斯拉，和马云的”新计划经济“都在这个思路上。
- 单点创新不再重要，系统性创新会成为主流。例如，Tesla 的自己开矿思路，整合全产业链思路。
项目打分
目前我主要看重三个东西：一个是美好的全球共识，另一个是网络效应，第三个是技术实力。另外一些次要标准也值得考虑，例如，规模效应。下面的每一个 hashtag 都对应一个加分标准。
- NO.1 #清晰共识
- 知乎上有人说，最高明的营销是点燃人类共同体心中的梦想
- Without a exciting mission or missions, you are worthless.
- 好的产品可能是几个”大势“的综合，最好形成全球共识
- ”每人一台电脑（微软）“，”每人一个智能手机（苹果）“，”每人一个网店（淘宝）“，”整合全美零售（ Amazon ）“，”最好的搜索（ google ）“。伟大公司的愿景永远都是那么清晰。
- 一个伟大愿景就是一条蓄势待发的新赛道，我只投每条赛道的领跑者。
- 最好是能够形成明确的网络效应的领域，进入红海厮杀阶段的技术公司就不太值得投了
- 目前，我感兴趣的愿景“智慧电网”，“自动驾驶”，“国内最有干货的 UGC 平台”，“低延迟互联网”
- 我不关心 AI ，区块链，3D 打印，这些都是技术，不是愿景。一个公司除了要有突破性技术，还要有垂直整合的能力。
- 财富会聚集到一个愿景之下，技术应该是大家共享的。
- 问题解决方案之王
- 我目前的投资标的都是” xx 之王“。xx 肯定是一个社会的大痛点大赛道，例如，云计算之王，智能电网之王。但是并不是所有的王者我都会投资。比赛已经结束的赛道，不投。例如，手机之王，中国线下外卖之王，PC 之王，我都没投。Because the idea is try my best to push innovation, not to make safe money.
- #基础设施型公司XAAS
- 亚马逊提供云计算和 logistics 和 Marketplace 等基础设施
- xaas ，规模做到全国第一，性价比做到全国第一，然后提供给小商家
- 美团给百万线下小店提供，管理软件，组织架构，配送，等基础设置
- 例如，如果我要成立一个饭店，我是想把我的店做的有特色，但是很多基本的东西我当然会用标准品
- 例如，我需要一套采购软件，上面的饼条，各种蔬菜，都是全网最低价
- 全美的中餐馆之所以吃起来都差不多，就是因为供应链企业就是那么几家。逻辑思维《横向标准化》
- 美国快驴，ebooking 都有再做类似的事情
- 微信本身就是个即时通讯基础设施
- 特斯拉目前还只是生产商品，未来的系能源电网或者 Robotaxi fleet 都可以称为基础设置
- 做基础设置的公司，是有很强的 #网络效应 和富者愈富效应的
- network-effect #network-effect
- anybody who control your ID, controls your world, think Wechat, AmazonPrime…
- NO.3 #技术为王
- 不迷信技术，强技术用在不合适的地方，依然不能产生财富效应，财富的本质是网络，能够增强网络的技术，才是创造财富的技术
- 自动驾驶汽车 FSD ，就是可以让原子世界的网络流动起来，所以是巨大的财富黑马
- 我认为即使到今天，软件吃世界的进度也只是万分之一。任何传统行业，只要结合更多的代码，都值得关注。
- 有 Linus 这样的 #BenevolentDictaor #善意独裁者 的公司肯定要加分的，例如 Jobs 时期的苹果，Musk 带领下的 Tesla
- I think I won’t invest in a company without a CEO has these attributes:
- be a creative Engineer, so that he can push the tech details of the company forward. Jeff and Steve are all great dictator, who are each master in bussiness model and product design, but in the future, a CEO must know tech deeply. Cause future companies will be huge in scale and they will foucus on building things, not selling things, so every tech detail matters a lot.
- Always share, cause you need support from general public
- bring in lots of money, Linus is a perfect dictator, but he does not have money
- Yes, the benevolent dictator is really important. IMO, A future company will be more like a tech system, an engineering achievement by itself. It takes a dictator like Steve Jobs, Linus Torvalds, or Elon Musk to get it done.
- As DaveLee put it, it is all about finding a ambitious founder.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njvhbwOaM68
- 最近一个苦恼是，我都不太清楚亚马逊和谷歌都在干嘛，没有一个独裁者每天出来聊聊，我去哪里了解企业的内幕呢？我现在越来越觉得，有善意独裁者，应该是我投企业的必备要素。大企业的腾飞，都类似一场社会革命，没有一个旗帜，一个 face 和 mouth ，怎么可能有效率。想象，哪个大公司腾飞，背后没有一个 dictator 呢？JP Morgan ，洛克菲勒，Jobs ，盖茨… 失去了强势领导，公司恐怕难免走向平庸。
- NO.4 #规模效应
- 网络效应也被称为“需求端规模效应” demand-side economy of scale
- 规模效应，并不只是薄利多销，还可能带来富者愈富
- 网络效应相对较强，能给企业带来非常大的生命力，通常规模效应就达不到这种效果
- 但是，当规模达到一定程度，就会出现”富者愈富“，这就强了
- 富者愈富，意思是当蛋糕就这么大，巨头吃了大半，其他小弟几乎就要饿死了，于是更没有力气打，于是就会恶性循环
- Windows 系统就是一个例子，adobe 不可能同时为 Window 和 Linux 都打造完全一样强大的软件，因为资源不够，富人和穷人出现争夺了，一定是富人胜出
- 拼多多之所以能跟淘宝干，就是因为抢夺的商家资源并不稀缺，客户稀缺但是切换容易，所以注册用户资源实际也不稀缺
- 福特主义
- 汽车生产线比汽车重要。十几年只生产 T 型车，就是为了达成最佳性价比。
- 利润不是第一位，市场份额第一，社会效益第一。
- 这样的企业是我的最爱。
- NO.5 #longChina
- 眼看东升西落是不可避免了
- 沈南鹏也反复提 long China