On Dec 31, 2019, Paul Graham twote: 2019年十月的时候，Ycombinator 的创始人 Paul Graham 发了这么一条推文
A secret for discovering great things: look for things that are said to have a “cult” following.
一个可以发现大投资机会的方法是：看它的粉丝群像不像一个 cult 。
In my March 24th, 2020 blog, I sold my idea that Everybody Should Be A VC. Today I will give my reasoning on why you probably want to invest in a cult.
我以前写过一篇博客，说每个人都应该成为一个风险投资人。雷军说，跟着趋势是最重要的。趋势之下，还要投对一个龙头企业，也就是 Paul Graham 说的 Cult, 才能真正捕获技术进步带来的价值。
A cult may sound as something evil, but here is my definition: A Cult is A Global Consensus on building Sth.
Cult 的本意是邪教，咱们这里肯定不是这个意思，我这里给出的定义是这样的：一个 Cult 就是为了达成一个伟大创新而形成的全球共识。
A cult has a really clear and benevolent goal. People’s love for it is based on logical reasoning, not religious passion. Bitcoin is building a new form of the Fed. Tesla is Building a next-generation energy infrastructure. Microsoft, a computing machine for everybody. Apple, portable Internet.
一个 Cult 应该有一个清晰的为全人类谋福利的愿景。人们之所以会热爱一个 Cult ，并不是源于宗教性的迷信，而是源于理性的推演。Tesla 的愿景是构建下一代能源基础设施，苹果的愿景是移动互联网，微软愿景是每个人桌上都有一个计算机。这些愿景都太简单明了，同时又特别伟大，所以才能凝结全球共识。
How to identify a cult, what are the common characteristics? NO.1 A cult always has fanboys making videos on youtube like crazy, that is to say, outsiders love it like family. NO.2 A cult usually takes the form of a company led by a dictator. Think Apple, Microsoft before and Amazon, Tesla now. A dictator is the best way to get things done quickly, so I won’t invest in any company if it does not have a powerful and famous dictator. But exceptions do exist, Linux is not a company. Bitcoin is just an open standard without a dictator. NO.3 A little smell of politics. Young gen wants to change the status quo like always you know, now they find tech is more powerful than swords.
那说具体点，一个 Cult 到底有哪些特征呢？第一，一个 Cult 通常都会有一群粉丝在 youtube 或者其他视频平台上给它做视频，免费做推广，因为 cult 型公司的粉丝会把自己当成公司的人一样去热爱这个公司。第二，一个 Cult 的形式大致都是一个有独裁者的公司。例如，苹果有乔布斯，亚马逊有贝索斯，微软有比尔盖茨，特斯拉有马斯克。独裁者可以推动事情迅速达成，所以如果一个公司没有一个很有名的 CEO ，我是不会投的。第三，你可以从对这个公司的讨论中多少嗅到一些政治运动的气味。年轻人总是想要打破现有的秩序的，现在他们已经认定技术是比刀枪更有力的变革力量。
Anyway, Nothing can be more valuable than a global consensus. If you don’t feel this, what are you doing?
其实，世界上真正值钱的东西就是共识，最值钱的当然是全球性的共识。如果你还没有认识到这一点，你可能还在生活在旧的投资逻辑中。
One million dollar question is what is the best way to get the consensus deployed.
最重要的问题还是如何达成这个全球愿景。
Small is not beautiful. Allow me to plug my own startup experience. 10 years ago, I co-founded a small software consulting firm. We are still in business today. But it’s really hard to do anything innovative, every day we need to fight for survival. Maybe that’s why I love Peter Thiel’s book Zero to One because only big guys can afford a 10000 people design team to build the best OS, phones, or cars.
马云说因小而美，其实对于产业发展来说，小肯定是不美的。我自己就是一个创业者，10年前就创立了一个小的软件外包公司，到今天我们还活着。但是，我们这种公司是没有啥精力去做创新的，每天疲于糊口而已。Peter Thiel 在从零到一那本书里说的很清楚了，只有大型垄断企业才有能力去组织一个1000人的团队去开发最好的东西，不管是操作系统，手机，还是电动汽车。
Why big won? The Internet has taken us to the Winner Take All era. It changed the way bits are moved from point A to point B. The logical next step is that it will change how we move atoms as well. People are not going to use the second-best search engine, likewise, people are not going to buy the second-best designed EV cars. The fact that lots of non-best companies can still grow and get big, is simply because of the insufficiency of information. I believe the Internet will solve this.
为啥越大越厉害呢？互联网把我们带入了一个赢者通吃的时代。它解决了信息流通不畅的问题。比特流通快了，那么原子流动也自然会越来越快，信息通了，物资流通也就更准确灵活了。互联网上，没有人会使用第二好的搜索引擎，类似的，未来人们也不会选择第二好的电动汽车。其实，咱们仔细想想就会明白，第二的东西其实完全都是不可能生存的，以前各个行业有那么多零散小企业，其实就是因为物资和信息流动的不畅，把世界阻隔成很多个小的能量场，每个能量场下都有一个自己的第一。
But good high tech companies are already very expensive, right? When it comes to investing real money, I will say be brave. Even though good companies already have a high valuation. If you love sth, buy it now, don’t wait. How big real good companies can be? Please read Rockefeller, J.P Morgan, and Henry Ford. In comparison with those guys, today’s Apple and Amazon are tiny. Right now, Amazon is selling anything, Tesla fanboys want to see Tesla become a company that builds anything. In the future, I believe there are companies that build and sell anything, think Umbrella in the movie Biohazard. Big data makes big organizations easier to manage, big does not mean slow and stupid.
但是说到具体的投资角度，大科技公司现在的估值都已经高的离谱了，还要投吗？我想说的是，只要是在趋势上行的公司，多贵都是不嫌贵的。而且如果你找到真爱了，不用等，直接投就好了。一个真正的好公司可以大到什么程度呢？可以多读读美国一百年前那个技术大变革年代的那些大人物的传记，例如洛克菲勒，摩根，亨利福特。跟他们比，今天亚马逊谷歌这些公司真的都是小弟。亚马逊的目标是要卖所有的东西，很多特斯拉粉丝的目标是要特斯拉造所有的东西。随着大数据的发展，人类组织大组织的能力会越来越强，大而高效，大而不腐败也不是不可能。
Big companies will be replaced by open standards one day, but for the short term, I love monopolies and will only invest in the NO.1 guy in any industry.
当然，一旦全球愿景达成，大公司也好，独裁者也好，他们的负面作用也可能都体现出来了，到时候，我们要做的是用开放标准来干掉这些大公司，就像用互联网干掉 AT&T 。但是短期来看，还是有独裁者的垄断企业最有效率，很多人喜欢投某个赛道的多个头部公司，但是对于领头羊已经很明显的行业，我倾向于只投一个龙头。
IMHO now we have stepped in an era that you don’t need to work if you don’t need to worry about food for today. Most of your time should be spent on learning and joining a new trend, a new global consensus, a cult.
我自己有些想法可能是听起来有些疯狂。我觉得咱们可能已经进入了一个大部分人不需要工作的时代了。所以如果你最近几年的吃穿问题解决了，你可能一辈子也不需要工作了。主体的时间应该从工作转移到学习上，学习什么是趋势，哪些领域正在形成全球共识，哪个企业可以称得上 cult 。
Firstly there will be no day jobs in the future anyway. Because AI and automation will produce things so efficiently, it’s easy to make a living in the future, as Elon Musk said: Everything will be very cheap. Putting big projects say autonomous cars aside, there will be no room for small life-style business either. Want to sell vegetables or open a local clothes shop? No way, Meituan, and Amazon will do that much more efficiently. So why not just spend more time on art/literature/politics or family life. If you want to do sth, do sth innovative and inspire big guys, the point is that don’t try to make a profitable business out of it, wait to be acquired or invested instead.
首先，未来的某一天肯定是不会存在现在社会这样的日常工作了。自动化会让一切生产都变得非常高效。人类的衣食住行的基本生存都会很容易满足。就像马斯克曾说的：一切商品都会变得非常便宜。不要说类似造车这样的大项目，就是开小超市这样的生活方式企业也一样不应该由小个体或者小公司去做了，因为美团亚马逊们用大数据和机器人买菜，肯定会更高效。个人拥有更多是时间了，可以去研究文学艺术和国家治理。如果你真的想创业，那么也不应该去做一个很简单的红海的项目，而是要去做一些非常创新性的项目，同时不要想着在自己很小的时候去赚钱，而要期待被大公司收购，或者拿到投资，然后自己做大。
So we should take learning as our full-time job. Building sth new will always be risky. Some specific companies can fail. But that’s not a problem, as long as you have enough knowledge, and understand the industries, you can still make money. For example, if Tesla fails, we will vote with money to create the next Tesla, that should be easy. Software is eating the world, people who don’t understand technology won’t be qualified to be an investor. Right now, the mainstream people are still technologically illiterate, so spending time to be tech-savvy will bring huge advantages to us as investors. Let me give you an example, In September 2020, Tesla holds a Battery Day, Elon Musk did a fantastic job explaining the new technology Tesla will use to build new batteries, For engineers, that is an exciting huge plan. But because of too many tech terms during the presentation, mainstream media considered the event dull, Tesla Stock price dropped 30 percent afterward.
所以，学习应该成为每个人的全职工作。因为创新永远是高风险的。任何一个特定公司都可能失败。但是如果你确实很渊博有洞见，总是会赚到钱的。举了例子，如果特斯拉有一天失败了，我们可以继续用钱投票，很快再创造一个特斯拉出来。怕的是我们对大的范式缺乏认知，对大的趋势不够敏感。软件还在吞食世界，我自己觉得一个不理解技术的人是不能成为一个好的投资人的。但是实际上，主流人群现在就是技术文盲，所以大家都应该多花时间学习，去成为技术达人。举个例子来说，2020年9月，特斯拉举办了一个大型活动，叫电池日。其实对于工程师来说，活动非常精彩，亮点很多。但是因为技术点实在太多，主流媒体觉得不知道特斯拉想说点啥，结果活动结束，特斯拉股价还大跌了百分之30。
So let’s learn how the technology works in a big and general way. Learn enough first principles in both technology and humanity to make your own judgment.
所以，咱们要多努力学习技术，尤其是对技术改变世界的能力的宏观认知。学习足够多的第一性原理，对技术和社会的互动有充分理解，以便能做出自己对未来的判断。
After all, what’s is the message I am trying to deliver? Learning is more important than working because it’s machines that make all the wealth in the future, not human labor. Only big companies use technology most efficiently, so they will capture most of the value created by technology. Nowadays the secret to being rich is not to work, but to own part of some tech monopolies. Behind all the forms of cults and companies, it’s all about the match of people’s need to get things done and the technology to do it. Being super knowledgeable is the only way for you to see the big trends earlier and be part of it. Being the early supporter of some cults is the best way today to push humanity forward while getting rich.
说到最后，那么我想传递一个什么样的信息呢？学习应该比工作重要，因为机器会代替人工作。只有大公司可以把技术的潜力发挥到极致，所以技术对社会创造的大部分价值，会被它们捕获。当前的，致富密码已经不是去工作了，而是拥有大型垄断公司的股份。用知识武装自己，才能去帮大公司改进技术方案，或者至少去宣传这套技术方案，让更有能力的人了解这些方案然后参与改进。所以说，不去做简单的日常工作，才是未来推动社会进步的最有效的工作方式。把握趋势，才是最有效的个人致富方式。
欢迎所有朋友加我微信：happypeter1983